Mathematical Biology Seminar: Janka Petravic

Abstract:

Since the historic first applications of the “standard model of viral dynamics” in 1994, mathematical modelling has been shifting paradigms about the HIV infection by identifying unexpected mechanisms behind observed patterns. The aim of our group is to take advantage of the already accumulated experimental results to test the validity of accepted explanations and theories, by formulating corresponding mathematical models and comparing the predictions to existing experimental findings. If none of the existing theories proves acceptable, we seek to formulate a satisfactory alternative model. Our simple models, so far based on ordinary differential equations, do not aspire to contain all factors influencing the course of infection, but aim to identify the main, necessary or sufficient mechanisms and offer testable predictions. I shall present the results of several of our modelling studies, which have led to novel insights in viral escape and reversion, effects of vaccination, early prediction of disease outcome, different dynamics of infection in blood and mucosal tissues, and the role of immune activation for differences in pathogenesis in humans and “natural hostsâ€