Plagued by numbers: the mathematics of disease

The dynamics of disease have long fascinated mathematical researchers. From influenza to the bubonic plague, mathematical and computational models are used to evaluate factors governing disease outbreaks. Facts about a disease are put into models. What come out are predictions regarding infection levels over time. The ultimate goal is to use models in devising strategies for disease control and management. Much recent work has focused on predicting dynamics of modern or emerging diseases, such as HIV/AIDS, SARS and West Nile virus. In the first part of my talk I will review some of this work and its implications, particularly in regards to models for West Nile virus and its spatial spread. I will then discuss recent interdisciplinary work on the spatial dynamics of naturally occurring parasites on wild salmon, namely sea lice, the role played by salmon farms in changing those dynamics for juvenile salmon, and the implications for wild salmon populations.