2009 Math Biology Seminar - 10

The basic reproductive number, R_0, which is generally defined as the expected number of secondary infections per primary case in a totally susceptible population, is an important epidemiological quantity. It helps us to understand the possible outcome of an initial infection seeding in a social setting: whether it leads to a small outbreak, or it evolves into a large-scale epidemic. The basic reproductive number encapsulates the information about the biology of disease transmission as well as the structure of human social contacts. We use concepts from network theory to present a novel method for estimating the value of the basic reproductive number during the early stage of an outbreak. This approach will greatly enhance our ability to reliably estimate the level of threat caused by an emerging infectious disease.