UAlberta MMI/ MSB Seminar: Jeremy Fox

Random fluctuations in environmental conditions (environmental stochasticity) are thought to increase population extinction risk. But as gamblers, politicians, and sports teams know, even bad risks become good risks when you are facing imminent defeat ("gambling for resurrection"). Analogously, populations at high risk of imminent extinction can benefit from environmental fluctuations that create some chance of long-term persistence. I will illustrate this principle with mathematical models, an experiment with Daphnia, and analogies to poker, hockey, and the movie Wag the Dog.