David Earn

Infectious disease outbreaks have precipitated a profusion of mathematical models. Epidemic curves predicted by these models are typically qualitatively similar, despite distinct model assumptions, but there is no theoretical explanation for this...

Abstract Over the last century, there has been tremendous progress in understanding the transmission of infectious diseases in human populations. However, most historical outbreaks have not been studied in detail because data that might permit such...

Comparisons are constantly being made between the 1918 influenza pandemic and the present COVID-19 pandemic. We will discuss our previous work on influenza pandemics, and the tools we have used to understand the temporal patterns of those outbreaks...